Austin Ekeler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
In this week's game, Austin Ekeler is forecasted by the projection model to secure a spot in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs with 5.6 targets.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 86.6% to 82.3%.
This year, the formidable Bears defense has surrendered a measly 77.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing running backs: the 9th-best rate in football.

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