Austin Ekeler Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The model projects Austin Ekeler to garner 6.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 18.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 86.6% to 80.5%.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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