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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens

Austin Ekeler Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to pass on 63.7% of their opportunities: the 4th-greatest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.6 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may fall-off.

The Ravens defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 7th-most passes in the NFL (38.5 per game) this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Austin Ekeler's 21.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 27.0.

Austin Ekeler's 3.3 adjusted receptions per game this season conveys a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching talent over last season's 6.3 figure.

Austin Ekeler's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 86.6% to 68.8%.

As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Baltimore's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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