|
|
Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-121/-113).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 19.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -121.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
|
|
The projections expect the Commanders offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.27 seconds per snap.The model projects Austin Ekeler to accrue 4.2 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among RBs.Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 14.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 93rd percentile among RBs.Austin Ekeler rates as one of the top RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a remarkable 32.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 96th percentile.With an impressive 6.6 adjusted yards per target (82nd percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Ekeler has been as one of the top pass-game running backs in the league.
|
|
|
|
|
|
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
|
|
With a 3-point advantage, the Commanders are favored this week, suggesting more of a focus on running than their usual approach.Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Washington Commanders to pass on 50.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.Washington's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and rushing stats too low) on account of playing the 10th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We figure to be able to count on some regression with windier conditions in this game.In regards to air yards, Austin Ekeler ranks in the lowly 9th percentile among RBs since the start of last season, averaging just -3.0 per game.With a weak 73.7% Adjusted Catch% (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Austin Ekeler rates among the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
