Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 33.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 33.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 33.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The model projects Austin Ekeler to garner 6.4 targets in this week's game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Austin Ekeler has been a big part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 18.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 99th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
Austin Ekeler has accrued a meager -5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 2nd percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 86.6% to 80.5%.
This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs defense has allowed a meager 20.0 adjusted receiving yards per game to opposing running backs: the 4th-fewest in football.

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