Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 4th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.6 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Los Angeles Chargers boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Chargers are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Austin Ekeler has put up a paltry -6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 2nd percentile among running backs.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.58 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 7th-least in the NFL.

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