Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Atlanta Falcons vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 5:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+185/-273).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +238 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense to be the 3rd-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 26.09 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 41.1 pass attempts per game against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
Austin Ekeler has been a key part of his team's passing offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 19.6% this year, which places him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 98th percentile for RBs.

Favors Under

Austin Ekeler has put up significantly fewer air yards this season (-10.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
The Atlanta Falcons defense has yielded the 8th-least passing touchdowns in the NFL to RBs: 0.12 per game this year.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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