Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+215/-339).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +296 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +215.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% this year, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler's 23.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in football: 93rd percentile for RBs.
Austin Ekeler's sure-handedness have improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 78.4% to 94.4%.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Austin Ekeler has compiled significantly fewer air yards this season (-12.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
The Denver Broncos defense has given up the least passing TDs in the league to RBs: 0.00 per game this year.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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