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Austin Ekeler

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 5

Cleveland Browns vs Los Angeles Chargers

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+246/-398).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -364 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -398.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack near the goal line this week (20.0% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.8% in games he has played).

Austin Ekeler's 26.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for running backs.

Austin Ekeler's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% jumping from 78.4% to 93.3%.

Austin Ekeler ranks in the 92nd percentile among RBs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.25 per game.

The Cleveland Browns pass defense has given up the 4th-highest Completion% in football (85.8%) to running backs since the start of last season (85.8%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 11th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 6th-least in the NFL.

Austin Ekeler has posted far fewer air yards this season (-10.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).

The Cleveland Browns linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best LB corps in football this year in pass coverage.

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