Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+248/-403).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +254 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +248.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to run the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 67.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 61.0 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to be much more involved in his team's passing attack near the end zone this week (18.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (10.0% in games he has played).
Austin Ekeler has notched a monstrous 5.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among running backs. (That may not sound like a lot, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 7th-least in football.
The Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 7th-least touchdowns through the air in the NFL to RBs: 0.15 per game since the start of last season.

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