Austin Ekeler Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+206/-319).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +261 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +206.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
Austin Ekeler has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 21.1% this year, which ranks in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Austin Ekeler's 28.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the league leaders: 98th percentile for RBs.
Austin Ekeler's receiving reliability have improved this year, with his Completion% rising from 78.4% to 90.9%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Austin Ekeler has accrued far fewer air yards this season (-10.0 per game) than he did last season (9.0 per game).
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in football (71.6%) vs. RBs this year (71.6%).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has yielded the least passing TDs in football to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.

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