Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 1:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -139 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
In this contest, Austin Ekeler is projected by the model to find himself in the 80th percentile among running backs with 13.6 carries.
Austin Ekeler has been given 47.6% of his team's rush attempts this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to RBs.
The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 28th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 37.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.

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