Austin Ekeler Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Austin Ekeler

NFL · Player Props

Austin Ekeler

RB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Austin Ekeler Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, averaging 26.40 seconds per play.
Austin Ekeler has earned 58.0% of his offense's carries this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers have gone for it on 4th down 27.6% of the time since the start of last season (2nd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 3.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 32.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year at opening holes for runners.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends profile as the 2nd-best DE corps in the league this year with their run defense.

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