Ashton Dulin Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Ashton Dulin

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Ashton Dulin Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-192/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -192.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line has allowed their QB 2.63 seconds before the pass (9th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have utilized play action on 33.6% of their passing plays since the start of last season (5th-most in the league), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Ashton Dulin has run a route on 23.5% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 13th percentile among wide receivers.
Ashton Dulin has been among the weakest WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 1.3 receptions per game while grading out in the 22nd percentile among WRs.
The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.