Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 6, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Chicago's collection of DEs has been dreadful this year, grading out as the worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to tilt 11.3% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
Our trusted projections expect the Commanders to be the 5th-least run-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 34.6% run rate.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projections to see only 121.7 offensive plays called: the 2nd-fewest out of all the games this week.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Antonio Gibson has been a much smaller piece of his team's run game this year (14.1% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (32.7%).

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