Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -117 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 30th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (30.3% in games he has played).

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