Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 44.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box versus opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Washington Commanders have risked going for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
The Washington Commanders have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.2% of their play-calls since the start of last season (4th-most in football), which can confuse the defense and bolster offensive production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game this week (32.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (60.8% in games he has played).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year at run-game blocking.
Antonio Gibson has rushed for substantially fewer yards per game (43.0) this year than he did last year (65.0).
Antonio Gibson's running effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating just 3.24 yards-per-carry vs a 4.03 mark last year.
Antonio Gibson has been among the bottom running backs in the league at generating extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.49 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 17th percentile.