Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 4:40 PM EST

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 14.4 carries in this game, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Antonio Gibson has generated 61.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in football among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders have gone for it on 4th down 24.1% of the time since the start of last season (4th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 7th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to be much less involved in his offense's run game this week (58.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (68.6% in games he has played).
Antonio Gibson's ground effectiveness has diminished this year, accumulating a measly 3.16 yards-per-carry vs a 4.03 rate last year.