Antonio Gibson Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Rushing TD

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+235/-373).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -349 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -373.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 7th-most run-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 46.4% red zone run rate.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
Antonio Gibson has earned 41.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among RBs.
Opposing squads have rushed for the 5th-most TDs in the NFL (1.36 per game) against the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.

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