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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+130/-170).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme passing game script for the Patriots, who are enormous -9-point underdogs.

The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Antonio Gibson has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 10.6% last year, which ranks in the 81st percentile among RBs.

With an excellent 3.0 adjusted catches per game (86th percentile) last year, Antonio Gibson places as one of the leading running backs in the pass game in football.

The Bengals safeties grade out as the worst safety corps in the NFL last year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 9th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Patriots.

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Patriots are forecasted by the predictive model to call just 60.7 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The 8th-fewest plays in the NFL have been called by the New England Patriots last year (just 56.2 per game on average).

The New England Patriots offensive line profiles as the 5th-worst in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.

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