Antonio Gibson Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receptions

Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 6-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 126.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to garner 3.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among RBs.
Antonio Gibson has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 11.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 89th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.40 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 7th-fastest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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