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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receptions
Player Prop Week 11

Houston Texans vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Antonio Gibson Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+105/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Washington Commanders will be rolling with backup QB Taylor Heinicke this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
  • THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to earn 4.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among RBs.
  • Antonio Gibson's 20.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 15.9.
  • Antonio Gibson has been among the top running backs in the pass game this year, averaging a terrific 3.4 receptions per game while grading out in the 91st percentile.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Commanders are an enormous 11.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 5th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.11 seconds per play.
  • Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Houston Texans defense this year: 4th-least in the league.
  • The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

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