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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 9

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.

The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Antonio Gibson to garner 3.3 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Antonio Gibson has put up a colossal 2.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among running backs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

Antonio Gibson's 13.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 19.9.

The Patriots pass defense has performed very well when opposing running backs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 6.44 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 6th-fewest in the league.

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