Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 3:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Antonio Gibson is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.9 targets.
As it relates to air yards, Antonio Gibson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
The Commanders O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.
Antonio Gibson's 13.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 19.9.
Antonio Gibson's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 79.9% to 75.2%.