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Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 7

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 13.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 14.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Washington Commanders offensive approach to tilt 13.0% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now calling the plays.
  • The predictive model expects the Commanders as the 8th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 60.1% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • In this game, Antonio Gibson is expected by the predictive model to finish in the 76th percentile when it comes to running backs with 2.9 targets.
  • As it relates to air yards, Antonio Gibson grades out in the towering 87th percentile among RBs this year, accruing a monstrous 3.0 per game. (given that they are usually targeted behind the line of scrimmage, this is far more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs have negative air yards).
  • The Commanders O-line profiles as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a positive impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Commanders, who are favored by 3 points.
  • The leading projections forecast the Commanders to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been wary to pass too much against the Giants, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.5 per game) this year.
  • Antonio Gibson's 13.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 19.9.
  • Antonio Gibson's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 79.9% to 75.2%.

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