Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Antonio Gibson to accrue 3.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 91st percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 4th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has shown strong efficiency versus running backs since the start of last season, surrendering 5.44 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 10th-best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.