Antonio Gibson Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 3:10 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+436/-996).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -991 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -996.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Antonio Gibson has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 9.8% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
Antonio Gibson's 17.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the best in the league: 85th percentile for running backs.
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Antonio Gibson's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 78.4% to 86.9%.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to run the 8th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.7 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.7 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the NFL.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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