Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Antonio Gibson

NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-165/+125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 9th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 6th-quickest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.73 seconds per snap.
Antonio Gibson has been given 32.7% of his team's carries since the start of last season, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Washington Commanders O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties grade out as the 3rd-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.

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