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Antonio Gibson
NFL · Player Props
Antonio Gibson
RB · Washington Commanders
Carries
Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022 Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC
NFL Props Antonio Gibson Carries

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Favors Over
  • The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
  • The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
  • The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Favors Under
  • The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Antonio Gibson has been a less important option in his team's rushing attack this season (39.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.2%).
  • The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
  • The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.
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