Antonio Gibson Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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NFL · Player Props

Antonio Gibson

RB · Washington Commanders

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 28, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Antonio Gibson Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 50.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 62.8 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Washington Commanders will be starting backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Antonio Gibson has been a less important option in his team's rushing attack this season (39.7% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (65.2%).
The Washington Commanders O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 8th-best safety corps in the league this year in regard to defending the run.