Anthony Firkser Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Anthony Firkser

NFL · Player Props

Anthony Firkser

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 10, 2022 1:50 AM UTC

Analysis

Anthony Firkser Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Falcons are a giant 10-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.
Anthony Firkser has been a much smaller piece of his team's offense this year, playing on just 13.7% of snaps compared to 33.6% last year.
Anthony Firkser has been among the best possession receivers in the NFL among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 80.1% of passes thrown his way since the start of last season, ranking in the 91st percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.2 plays per game.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 3rd-best unit in football this year in pass coverage.
The Atlanta Falcons O-line has given their quarterback a mere 2.41 seconds before getting pressured (8th-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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