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Andy Dalton TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-300/+210).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -260 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -300.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on passing than their usual approach.The 9th-largest volume of plays in football have been run by the Carolina Panthers since the start of last season (a staggering 59.8 per game on average).The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may fall-off.Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest clip in the league versus the Raiders defense since the start of last season (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Las Vegas's LB corps has been awful since the start of last season, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Right now, the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (54.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Panthers.The leading projections forecast this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.In this contest, Andy Dalton is anticipated by the projection model to total the 11th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 32.7. The Panthers O-line profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.Andy Dalton rates as one of the least accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a 55.3% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 17th percentile.
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