Andy Dalton Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · Carolina Panthers

Rushing Yards

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Andy Dalton Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 44.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (9.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (4.3% in games he has played).
The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Opposing squads have run for the 3rd-most yards in football (146 per game) vs. the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to total 2.7 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 7th-least of all quarterbacks.
Andy Dalton has picked up just 4.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the smallest figures in the NFL among quarterbacks (11th percentile).

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