Andy Dalton Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Andy Dalton

NFL · Player Props

Andy Dalton

QB · New Orleans Saints

Rushing Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 6, 2022 1:21 AM EST

Analysis

Andy Dalton Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 9th-most run-heavy team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 41.5% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Saints to call the 3rd-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Andy Dalton to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (9.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (2.5% in games he has played).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Saints are a huge 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The New Orleans Saints have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.3 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Andy Dalton has picked up a mere 6.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the smallest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (25th percentile).
Andy Dalton's running efficiency has declined this year, averaging a mere 3.77 yards-per-carry compared to a 6.17 mark last year.

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