Andrew Ogletree Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Andrew Ogletree

NFL · Player Props

Andrew Ogletree

TE · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Cleveland Browns · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Andrew Ogletree Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-166/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -160 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -166.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.
The Indianapolis O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive influence on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Favors Under

With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Colts.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Andrew Ogletree has been one of the most hard-handed receivers in the NFL among tight ends, catching just 63.6% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 17th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the imposing Cleveland Browns defense has given up a measly 67.0% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 4th-best rate in football.
The Browns safeties project as the 8th-best safety corps in football this year in covering receivers.

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