Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 8:37 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-108/+106).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Lions to pass on 61.1% of their downs: the 7th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by the model to see 137.4 plays on offense called: the most out of all the games this week.
The 6th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been run by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 61.8 per game on average).
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
With an exceptional 40.0% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the goal line in football.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 68.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 77.1.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 72.2% to 68.5%.
This year, the porous Green Bay Packers run defense has surrendered a massive 1.50 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-biggest rate in football.
The Green Bay Packers safeties grade out as the best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.

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