Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to run 67.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
With a top-tier 39.1% Red Zone Target% (96th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown stands as one of the WRs with the most usage near the end zone in the league.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has accumulated a colossal 86.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 75.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in football: 97th percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 72.2% to 68.0%.
The Carolina Panthers defense has allowed the 4th-fewest TDs through the air in football to wideouts: 0.60 per game since the start of last season.

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