Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 1:12 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-112/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-fastest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 27.59 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With an elite 42.9% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown rates among the wide receivers with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.
In regards to air yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the towering 90th percentile among WRs since the start of last season, totaling a staggering 88.0 per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 77.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 99th percentile for wideouts.

Favors Under

With a 6.5-point advantage, the Lions are favored in this week's contest, implying more of a reliance on running than their standard game plan.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all air attack statistics), the offensive line of the Lions profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
Since the start of last season, the porous Jets run defense has allowed a whopping 1.05 TDs on the ground per game to the opposing side: the 9th-highest rate in the league.