Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs Detroit Lions · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 17, 2026 8:48 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-135).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Lions are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Lions to pass on 61.2% of their downs: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run out of all the games this week at 132.4 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may decline.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 39.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

With a 53.5% rate of running the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 8th-most run-focused team in the league in these situations has been the Lions.
The Detroit Lions have played in the 6th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Buffalo Bills, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.1 per game) since the start of last season.
When it comes to pass protection (and the impact it has on all air attack statistics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 10th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Bills defense since the start of last season (68.1% Adjusted Completion%).