Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+102/-115).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 38.5% last year, which puts him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
When talking about air yards, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the towering 89th percentile among WRs last year, averaging an astounding 85.0 per game.
Amon-Ra St. Brown rates in the 99th percentile among wide receiver WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 77.1 mark last year.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.3 per game) last year.
The Detroit O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

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