Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects this game to have the highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 134.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been called by the Lions this year (a colossal 62.5 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is anticipated by the model to place in the 99th percentile among WRs with 11.0 targets.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Lions being a 5.5-point favorite this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to pass too much against the Cardinals, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 66.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 77.1.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (61.9%) to wide receivers since the start of last season (61.9%).