Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-133/+127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -163 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Lions are anticipated by the projections to run 67.8 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may decline.
The predictive model expects Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 11.4 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 33.3% this year, which ranks in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown comes in as one of the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 6.4 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 99th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, likely leading to a running game script.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game versus the Panthers defense since the start of last season: 9th-fewest in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful influence on all pass game statistics across the board.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 72.2% to 68.0%.
When it comes to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Carolina's collection of CBs has been excellent since the start of last season, ranking as the 6th-best in football.