Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs New Orleans Saints · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 13, 2026 1:02 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+101/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 134.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 10.5 targets in this week's game, on balance, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 32.9% last year, which places him in the 99th percentile among WRs.
With an impressive 6.1 adjusted receptions per game (98th percentile) last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the leading wide receivers in the NFL in football.

Favors Under

The Lions are a giant 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
Opposing QBs teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New Orleans Saints, totaling the 2nd-fewest attempts in the NFL (a mere 28.3 per game) last year.
The Detroit O-line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a negative influence on all pass game statistics across the board.