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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Detroit Lions to call the most plays on offense on the slate this week with 68.1 plays, based on their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The 2nd-highest number of plays in the league have been run by the Lions since the start of last season (a monstrous 61.2 per game on average).

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.

Our trusted projections expect Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 10.4 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 100th percentile among wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 32.0% this year, which ranks him in the 98th percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This game's spread implies a rushing game script for the Lions, who are favored by 6 points.

The model projects the Detroit Lions as the 10th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 56.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's 63.6% Adjusted Catch Rate this year represents a noteable regression in his receiving talent over last year's 75.1% figure.

The Seahawks safeties rank as the best unit in football since the start of last season in defending receivers.

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