Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 30, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-102/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ +112 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a staggering 61.1 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.
With an impressive 93.7% Route Participation% (95th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places as one of the wideouts with the biggest workloads in football.
In this game, Amon-Ra St. Brown is projected by the projections to land in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 10.5 targets.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the O-line of the Lions grades out as the 2nd-best in the league this year.

Favors Under

The Lions are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The model projects the Detroit Lions to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by our trusted projection set to see just 124.5 plays on offense called: the lowest number among all games this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Las Vegas Raiders, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a mere 33.4 per game) this year.
When it comes to linebackers in covering receivers, Las Vegas's group of LBs has been very good this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.