Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Detroit Lions · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 6:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is implied by the Lions being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
This week, Amon-Ra St. Brown is predicted by the projections to position himself in the 97th percentile among wideouts with 10.3 targets.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 29.4% this year, which puts him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the positive impact it has on all passing attack stats), the O-line of the Lions profiles as the best in the NFL this year.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's 5.3 adjusted receptions per game this season reflects a a substantial diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 6.7 figure.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Lions offense to be the 4th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.64 seconds per snap.
The Ravens pass defense has conceded the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (64.1%) to WRs this year (64.1%).
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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