Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 4:21 PM EST

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+115/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to garner 9.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 29.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have gotten better this season, with his Completion% increasing from 76.9% to 80.2%.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense to be the 8th-worst paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.94 seconds per play.
The Detroit Lions offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties rank as the 6th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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