Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 131.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 10.4 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 29.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among wideouts.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 6.6 receptions per game while grading out in the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Lions are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Lions have been the 2nd-least pass-oriented team in the league (adjusted for context) since the start of last season with a 52.4% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has yielded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.4%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.4%).

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