Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 13, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Lions are expected by the predictive model to run 65.8 offensive plays in this game: the 6th-most on the slate this week.
The 5th-most plays in football have been called by the Detroit Lions this year (a monstrous 62.8 per game on average).
The Chargers defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, enticing opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (41.0 per game) this year.
The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 10.7 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 99th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been an integral part of his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 31.6% this year, which ranks him in the 97th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Lions rank as the 10th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year with a 59.9% pass rate.
The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (63%) to WRs this year (63.0%).

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