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Amon-Ra St. Brown

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-107/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 5.5 @ -124.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in the league (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to earn 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among wideouts.

Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading wide receivers in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 6.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

The New England Patriots defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 9th-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 56.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be much less involved in his team's pass game this week (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (30.6% in games he has played).

The Detroit Lions offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 69.6%.

More Amon-Ra St. Brown Player Props

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