Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Amon-Ra St. Brown

NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-109/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 6.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 6.5 @ -109.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 9th-quickest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) since the start of last season, averaging 25.27 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 8.8 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among wide receivers.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a key part of his team's passing offense, posting a Target Share of 22.8% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 5.8 receptions per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 57.6% pass rate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 65.3%.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
The Detroit Lions have incorporated play action on a mere 22.0% of their passing plays since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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