Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Amon-Ra St. Brown

WR · Detroit Lions

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs Detroit Lions · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Amon-Ra St. Brown Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-104/-127).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -127.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 9.1 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 93rd percentile among WRs.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a more integral piece of his team's pass attack this season (31.0% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (22.1%).
Amon-Ra St. Brown's play as a receiver has been refined this season, totaling 6.9 yards per game vs a measly 5.7 last season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the best possession receivers in football, completing a stellar 79.0% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has conceded the highest Completion% in the NFL (72%) to wideouts this year (72.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 11th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 56.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Detroit Lions O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Detroit Lions offensive line has afforded their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in football since the start of last season.